Known Unknowns

Known Unknowns: The Increase in Students’ Not Reporting Their Race After the End of Affirmative Action reports on one of the most intriguing and potentially damaging impacts of the Supreme Court decision that limited the consideration of racial identity in college admissions decisions: Increased numbers of applicants are not reporting their race or ethnicity on college applications.

Known Unknowns makes several significant findings:

• There are multiple reasons that some applicants do not report their race on a college application. It should not be assumed that they are doing so to gain an admissions advantage, nor should it be assumed that non-reporting is more common among particular demographics. Confusion over and misinterpretation of the meaning of the Supreme Court decision likely drove increased non-reporting.

• Between 2010 and 2023, non-reporting rates declined across a range of institutional types and remained fairly flat up until the SFFA decision. Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) were an exception to this trend; HBCUs varied widely and unpredictably.

• Over the past decade, the percentage of students not reporting their race when they register for the SAT and ACT has effectively doubled.

• Over 95 percent of first-year students shared their racial identity with their institution in the years leading up to and after the SFFA decision, despite increased non-reporting.

• Across all institutions, non-reporting increased in aggregate from 3.3 percent to 4 percent after the SFFA decision. Ivy Plus institutions saw the largest increase in non-reporting, from an average of 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2023 to 5.8 percent in 2024. HBCUs saw the second largest increase, from an average of 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2023 to 4.9 percent in 2024. Public four-year institutions and stage flagship universities saw the smallest increases.

• The majority of institutions did not see significant increases in non-reporters. Non-reporting rates increased by more than one percentage point at a majority of Ivy Plus schools, but among all other groups less than half or even less than a quarter saw that level of growth in unknowns.

• Among a group of 115 colleges and universities that report disaggregated data for applications, admits, and enrollments, non-reporting among applications increased at essentially the same rate—0.7 percentage points—as it did for enrollments nationally. Within this much smaller dataset, less selective institutions had the highest rate of non-reporting pre- and post-SFFA; they also saw the largest increase in unknowns after the Supreme Court decision.

• On average, after the Supreme Court decision, non-reporters were admitted at higher rates than the overall applicant pool.

• A preliminary analysis of the available data shows little to no correlation between changes in non-reporter shares and in shares of any particular race or demographic.

It may be to the benefit of higher education to communicate to students more

clearly the value and the lack of risk associated with sharing demographic data. Unknowns remain fairly rare in college enrollment, even after the Supreme Court decision, but increased rates of non-reporting and the potentially high legal stakes involved make this a phenomenon to watch. Growing numbers of non-reporters make it all the more important to recognize and reckon with the complexity of college admissions and enrollment, especially with respect to making accusations about any one institution’s practices and policies.

Known Unknowns.pdf

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